1. The Hidden Structure of CEE Logistics Markets
In CEE, logistics and industrial real estate markets currently fall into three distinct categories: the overheated, the overcrowded, and the overlooked. For investors, this distinction matters more than ever. Looking at headline rents alone no longer tells the full story. The real signal lies in the gap between rental levels and vacancy rates. This rent-vacancy spread reveals where risk is priced in and where it is not.
The real winner in today’s CEE market is not at the extremes, but in the middle.
2. The Extremes Explained: Prague vs. Bucharest
Every healthy investment decision starts by understanding and deliberately excluding the extremes.
Prague (€7.50 / ~3.1% vacancy): The Premium Market
Prague represents stability, liquidity, and deep demand. Vacancy is low, tenant quality is high, and the market is mature. However, this maturity comes at a price. Rental levels are now comparable to Western European hubs, land availability is extremely limited, and competition for assets is intense. For logistics operators and developers, margins are thin and entry costs are high. Prague remains a safe market—but one where upside potential is increasingly constrained.
Bucharest (€4.70 / ~4.9% vacancy): The Growth Market
At the other end of the spectrum lies Bucharest. Rents are attractive, and long-term growth prospects are real. However, infrastructure maturity and market predictability still vary significantly by submarket. For conservative supply chains and institutional investors prioritizing stability, Bucharest is often seen as a future opportunity rather than an immediate anchor market. Growth is present – but so is volatility.
Both cities serve important roles within CEE. Neither is “wrong.” But neither represents the optimal balance investors are increasingly looking for in 2025.
3. Competitive Mid-Tier Markets: Warsaw and Budapest
Warsaw and Budapest are often perceived as the natural middle ground. Both are large capitals with strong economic fundamentals and international visibility.
However, the data introduces an important nuance. Warsaw (€5.75) and Budapest (€5.70) now command higher rents than Bratislava, while simultaneously showing significantly higher vacancy rates, ranging from approximately 7.5% to 10% depending on submarket.
This combination matters. Higher vacancy typically signals increased competition among landlords, longer letting periods, and downward pressure on incentives. These are not failing markets – but they are markets currently adjusting. For investors, this translates into higher leasing risk and less predictable cashflows at comparable or higher cost levels.
4. The Solution: Slovakia as the “Goldilocks” Market
This is where Slovakia and specifically the Bratislava/Senec region stands out.
Bratislava currently operates at approximately €5.40 in rent, lower than Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, while maintaining a vacancy rate of around 4.3%. This places it in a rare position within CEE: neither overheated nor oversupplied.
Slovakia combines the stability typically associated with the Czech market with pricing that remains competitive.
The country benefits from a strong industrial base, deep integration into European manufacturing networks, and a logistics profile that supports long-term tenant retention rather than short-term speculation.
Senec, in particular, strengthens this positioning. Located within the Bratislava catchment area, it offers proximity to Vienna and Western European supply corridors—without the land scarcity and pricing pressure seen in Prague. For developers, this translates into predictable absorption, resilient tenant demand, and balanced risk-adjusted returns.
5. The Takeaway for Developers and Investors
Investors in 2025 are not chasing stories. They are looking for predictable cashflows, disciplined entry prices, and markets that work with them – not against them.
Prague offers security, but limited upside. Budapest and Warsaw offer scale, but require vacancy risk to be priced in. Senec is the mathematical answer: a balanced market with stable tenants, manageable competition, and fair entry conditions.
IPEC Group operate in this sweet spot. Let’s run the numbers.